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UK rate rise timing dependent on Germany?

07 Oct 2014

German industrial output declined by its biggest amount in five years in August - it was 4% lower than July, compared to the 1.5% decline forecast by economists - according to figures released by the German economics ministry

However it should be noted that a significant part of the decline was due to the technical effect of the numbers of the summer holiday period

Combine this news with the poor German industrial orders announced earlier this week (a decline of 5.7% in August v July, the biggest decline since January 2009), and the worry is that Germany - the powerhouse of the eurozone economy - may be heading towards recession

Likely factors contributing to the declines are weak demand from other eurozone countries, the slowdown in the Chinese economy, and the unrest in Ukraine

UK manufacturing numbers released recently were also weaker than expected, almost certainly influenced by the eurozone, as reported here, which is likely to delay the timing of the first interest-rate rise by the UK's Monetary Policy Committee

If you can read in German(!), see the full release here - if not, it should be released on the site in English shortly!


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