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First interest rate rise likely in 2015, not 2014

19 Aug 2014

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure was released yesterday, showing UK inflation growing at 1.6% in the year to July, down from 1.9% in June, meaning that interest rates are less likely to increase this year

The fall was attributed mostly to a drop in clothing prices, but downward effects also came from prices of alcohol, financial services, food and non-alcoholic drinks.

The inflation rate has now been below the target of 2% for all of 2014 so far, and is an important indicator of the likely direction and timing of interest rate changes - for example the CPI figure is used as a benchmark by the government and employers for rises in pensions, wages and benefits.

The lower than expected inflation rate means that the economy still has enough capacity to absorb increases in demand without causing upward pressure on prices - hence a rise in interest rates is less likely to be needed this year to cool demand

For the full release by the Office for National Statistics see here


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